HANDICAP GURU: THE ODDS ARE AGAINST YOU
A reader recently asked what the odds would be for a 19-handicapper to shoot a 77 from tees that had a Coures Rating of 71.2 and Slope of 133. I've calculated only the odds of shooting up to 10 shots better than your Differential (your adjusted score based on course difficualty from the tees you played). The odds of a 19-handicapper shooting 10 shots better are 37,000-to-1. Five shots better would be 174-to-1. In the case of this 14-shot improvment, I'd estimate the odds to be 100,000-to-1, or more than a lifetime of golf. You can see the entire odds chart at popeofslope.com/sandbagging/odds.html.
from DEAN KNUTH, former senior director of the USGA Handicap Department.
From Golf Digest October 2012, page 58